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There are market predictions, climate predictions and I here my geopolitical prediction to affect the region within the next 5 to 10 years. I haven't found an appropriate flair to attach but this is my forecast which I hope will answer some of your questions.
I am trying to answer the questions as to what strategic value the cancellation of the Treaty of Kars may deliver to Moscow, and what may be the reasons for Moscow to make recently such great concessions regarding Turkey's connection to Azerbaijan?
Before we make a checklist of what may motivate Russia to cancel the treaty, I would like to draw your attention on the previous three cancellation attempts. There are three formal ones, and undoubtedly Kars popped-up in many governmental discussions and debates [optional read, below the points extracted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Kars]
Eventually, Turkey and Russia should agree on such annexation. Russia would have to manage a reasonable number of social issues to create a new Federation. Chances are high as well that Russia will leverage its Armenian diaspora to rebuild the region and make out of it an autonomous Armenian Republic like Chechnya is now for Chechen people. I am happy to increase the volume of everyone who is thinking now, why on Earth Turkey would sign an annexation or tolerate retake of such strategic territory? The simple answer is because they will have little political support from East to West. One should not forget that attack against Armenia will have a sickening impact across the globe. Russia France, and why not US, may raise some shocking facts and accusations about Turkey’s genocidal policy on a global podium, a bit like what happened with Serbia under the rule of Slobodan Milosevic. Points that until now were under the rubbles of other headlines to hide Ankara's shame. In my view, this is exactly what Russia is keen to exploit, and they will do it with success.
Going back to my initial point, Russia has been eyeing for many years to get back some if not all the territories under Kars agreement. Many elements suggest that such annexation would bring to Russia not lesser power than the control over Bosporus. By taking all those historical Armenian territories, Russia will secure a control over Asia’s oil/gas supply to Europe. Georgia’s Nato saga will turn into fiasco while the infrastructure control, will be the cherry on the cake. If this turn of events becomes a reality, Russia’s control over Europe and Asia will likely end Nato's expansion.
Naturally, such a scenario will be a golden age for Armenia. An Armenian Republic of Russia bordering the western border of the current State of Armenia, and controlling almost every single connection Azerbaijan has with Turkey, will mark the end of all aggressivity from Azerbaijan. Eventually, Armenia may well open the corridor from Baku to Nakhichevan, but it would not be in the same conditions imagined today. Meanwhile, Russia’s ally Iran, will gain further freedoms. With Georgia no longer Nato’s ally, one can imagine a non-stop safe train connection from Moscow to the Persian Gulf, passing through Georgia and Armenia. WOW!
Now you may think, is there a connection between the hypothetical scenario above with the current Karabakh crisis? Many believe that Russia is afraid of Turkey and try to please them as much as possible. In my view, this is nowhere near the reality. The reality is that Russia is seating on top of thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of destroying any military target without sending in there any planes, drones, or soldiers. I am not even covering other military advantages Moscow has over Ankara.
However, let us be careful here. Russia cannot just annex a territory when Turkey is behaving well, and Russia nowadays shows warm and helpful policy towards Turkey. Well, this may drastically change because of the new border demarcation around Syunik specifically. With the new setup where Armenia is more than every vulnerable to war with Azerbaijan and Turkey, one should also assess, is 'this' not a Russian trap pushing Turkey to commit the grave mistake they would not even think of? By saying 'this' I make a firm reference to the peace agreement of 10th of November 2020, and more specifically to Russia's green light to territory hand over which many struggle to understand. I am not talking about Karabakh conflict but about Armenia’s south. We all know Turkey’s appetite for flash invasions, and we saw it in the 1970s in Cyprus. Everyone understands that by allowing the surrounding of CSTO's only ally in the Caucasus by Turkey's friend, Russia's defence strategy in the south is at risk. But don't worry! The guys in Moscow are not that stupid, and thinking that Russia will not back Armenia in case of military aggression, it's forgetting Russia appetite for Turkey's East.
To simplify my point, I suspect Russia is making it possible to Turkey to use Azerbaijan to capture Syunik. With Azerbaijan attacking the tinny Syunik from both sides, East and West, the victory will appear almost guaranteed. For those who still think that Azerbaijan will never do that because of CSTO, I would suggest recalling the mutual accusations of ceasefire violation that lasted for weeks.
The last war was a success for Azerbaijan thanks to Baku's lies accepted by the international community. They poured accusations that Armenia started the war and kept on breaking ceasefire when everyone knew that the only side desperate for blood was and is Azerbaijan. One can win by misinformation but should be prepared for a boomerang effect.
Some headlines may pop-up accusing Azerbaidjan of launching an assault against Armenian soil, and accusations from Moscow and Paris may put Turkey and Azerbaijan in a challenging position. Either they will need to back off from some of the borders or go-in-full. Then, Turkey would have to either attack Armenia/ CSTO or Azerbaijan as ally forever.
They will face the little surprise that Armenia’s military forces are far from being destroyed. Not many noticed that Armenia’s regular army, air defence, tank divisions and other forces had little involvement in the last war. In other words, no matter how doubting it may sound, Armenia’s military is still very much fresh and combat-ready.
Besides, CSTO’s ally Armenia will get the green light to defend itself as much as possible with all the available tools and resources. This time around there will not be unarmed SU30s, or idle Islanders with helicopters blocked in the hangars. It needs to be clarified that Azerbaijan never got in fight with Armenia proper and Armenia’s weaponry had a minimal deployment in the last war. The chances are high that in such attack Armenia delivers to Azerbaijan massive losses, including in Nakhichevan. This would be the historic moment for Turkey to trigger Turkey’s aggression against Armenia and hence against CSTO. This will inevitably lead to a confrontation with Russia, but this time around no one in Moscow will stay quiet as they have been waiting for this moment for many years. It is important to note that no agreement would protect at that moment Turkey. Nato is not covering the act of aggression from a Member State, and new amendments have confirmed that point. Turkey has the right to intervene in Nakhichevan invasion, but the case scenario of Azeri aggression invalidates the Turkish right to protect Nakhichevan.
So, from this scenario, everything adds-up perfect for Russia to get angry with Turkey, and trigger the cancellation of the treaty of Kars as a punishment for attacking a tinny country victim of a previous genocide which is also though a CSTO ally.
This post describes my theory on what are the advantages for Russia from the recent Karabakh war. What may be the secret plan Moscow drawn with Armenia. Why Nikol has such great backing from Moscow, and what the final solution to Karabakh conflict may be.
Feel free to comment, share, bookmark, downvote. My only ask guys, if you believe everything is going into an abyss, Armenia lost, none of this is accurate, or I am too optimistic, please do not spread any negativity. Try to argue your feedback with clear reasons as to why this or that will never happen, so everyone understands what you mean. Thank you!
If you liked this content, and/or share my view, thanks in advance for all upvote!
submitted by Digiff to armenia [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/gnhgzjkylvb61.png?width=1114&format=png&auto=webp&s=c7b3afb58ec956d04110311a66c0e2c65dfd7664
There are market predictions, climate predictions and I here my geopolitical prediction to affect the region within the next 5 to 10 years. I haven't found an appropriate flair to attach but this is my forecast which I hope will answer some of your questions.
I am trying to answer the questions as to what strategic value the cancellation of the Treaty of Kars may deliver to Moscow, and what may be the reasons for Moscow to make recently such great concessions regarding Turkey's connection to Azerbaijan?
Before we make a checklist of what may motivate Russia to cancel the treaty, I would like to draw your attention on the previous three cancellation attempts. There are three formal ones, and undoubtedly Kars popped-up in many governmental discussions and debates [optional read, below the points extracted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Kars]
- After World War II, the Soviet Union attempted to annul the treaty and to regain its lost territory. According to Nikita Khrushchev, Deputy Premier Lavrentiy Beria goaded his fellow Georgian Joseph Stalin into taking action on the issue, insisting on the return of historical Georgian territories. Stalin eventually agreed, and on 7 June 1945, Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov informed the Turkish ambassador in Moscow that the provinces of Kars, Ardahan and Artvin should be returned to the Soviet Union in the name of both the Georgian and the Armenian Socialist Soviet Republics
- Moscow revisited the treaty in 1968 when it attempted to negotiate a border adjustment with Turkey in which the ruins of Ani would be transferred to Soviet Armenia in exchange for two Azerbaijani villages in the area of Mount Akbaba
- December 2006, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said that Armenia accepts the treaty as the legal successor to the Armenian SSR but noted that Turkey did not adhere to the treaty's terms.[23] Specifically, Article XVII of the treaty called for the "free transit of persons and commodities without any hindrance" among the signatories and that the parties would take "all the measures necessary to maintain and develop as quickly as possible railway, telegraphic, and other communications"
- Following the shootdown of the Russian Sukhoi Su-24 over the Syria–Turkey border in November 2015 and the rise of Russo-Turkish tensions, members of the Communist Party of Russia proposed annulling the Treaty of Moscow and, by extension, the Treaty of Kars.[25][26] Initially, the Russian Foreign Ministry considered that action to send a political message to the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.[25]
- Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (main oil pipeline named after Heydar Aliyev), plus Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline & Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum gas pipeline (a.k.a. Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline). Those three energy roads are nothing less than energy food supplies of critical importance for Europe and even more for Turkey. I am sure some of you asked yourself the question, as to why then Turkey is hysterically looking to become energy producer & exporter? After all, just before the Karabakh war, Turkey almost clashed with Greece in a sea battle. Could it be that the answer has been staring at you? Having Azerbaijan as key supplier one may think, why on Earth Turkey is panicking so much for new findings in the Mediterranean and the Black sea? Could it be that they see upcoming historical changes? Maybe because soon Baku's supply will become too expensive or even unaffordable? To get straight to the point, Russia is the only country after Armenia can still put hands on those pipes and control the region using international laws. Just think about the power Russia would gain if the Europeans become dependent of Russia’s goodwill for all oil and gas going through Azerbaijanis pipelines, which by the way also can be used by Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
- The following critical advantage for Russia, would be the control over Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway. At first glance no big benefits pop-up from that road but with an increasing demand of Europe to connect with Asia and vice versa, it cannot be ignored that the railway's potential will play an important role. So, yet another powerful economic and political tool in the hands of Georgia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan. But again, Russia is excluded from the game.
- Georgia’s journey with Nato is yet another hammer over Moscow’s head. No matter how many Ossetias and Abkhazias join Russia, the latter will never occupy Georgia in full or capture strategic territories to take over the pipeline. If everything stays as it is, Russia will stay too isolated. With no control over the pipe channels, no control over the railways or road, and with an increased vulnerability hovering over Armenia’s south, Russia would need deep sand and long neck to ignore the losses in the south. Therefore, I am exploring any other way-out Russia may target soon, as I am confident, an upcoming event will change the current setup.
Eventually, Turkey and Russia should agree on such annexation. Russia would have to manage a reasonable number of social issues to create a new Federation. Chances are high as well that Russia will leverage its Armenian diaspora to rebuild the region and make out of it an autonomous Armenian Republic like Chechnya is now for Chechen people. I am happy to increase the volume of everyone who is thinking now, why on Earth Turkey would sign an annexation or tolerate retake of such strategic territory? The simple answer is because they will have little political support from East to West. One should not forget that attack against Armenia will have a sickening impact across the globe. Russia France, and why not US, may raise some shocking facts and accusations about Turkey’s genocidal policy on a global podium, a bit like what happened with Serbia under the rule of Slobodan Milosevic. Points that until now were under the rubbles of other headlines to hide Ankara's shame. In my view, this is exactly what Russia is keen to exploit, and they will do it with success.
Going back to my initial point, Russia has been eyeing for many years to get back some if not all the territories under Kars agreement. Many elements suggest that such annexation would bring to Russia not lesser power than the control over Bosporus. By taking all those historical Armenian territories, Russia will secure a control over Asia’s oil/gas supply to Europe. Georgia’s Nato saga will turn into fiasco while the infrastructure control, will be the cherry on the cake. If this turn of events becomes a reality, Russia’s control over Europe and Asia will likely end Nato's expansion.
Naturally, such a scenario will be a golden age for Armenia. An Armenian Republic of Russia bordering the western border of the current State of Armenia, and controlling almost every single connection Azerbaijan has with Turkey, will mark the end of all aggressivity from Azerbaijan. Eventually, Armenia may well open the corridor from Baku to Nakhichevan, but it would not be in the same conditions imagined today. Meanwhile, Russia’s ally Iran, will gain further freedoms. With Georgia no longer Nato’s ally, one can imagine a non-stop safe train connection from Moscow to the Persian Gulf, passing through Georgia and Armenia. WOW!
Now you may think, is there a connection between the hypothetical scenario above with the current Karabakh crisis? Many believe that Russia is afraid of Turkey and try to please them as much as possible. In my view, this is nowhere near the reality. The reality is that Russia is seating on top of thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of destroying any military target without sending in there any planes, drones, or soldiers. I am not even covering other military advantages Moscow has over Ankara.
However, let us be careful here. Russia cannot just annex a territory when Turkey is behaving well, and Russia nowadays shows warm and helpful policy towards Turkey. Well, this may drastically change because of the new border demarcation around Syunik specifically. With the new setup where Armenia is more than every vulnerable to war with Azerbaijan and Turkey, one should also assess, is 'this' not a Russian trap pushing Turkey to commit the grave mistake they would not even think of? By saying 'this' I make a firm reference to the peace agreement of 10th of November 2020, and more specifically to Russia's green light to territory hand over which many struggle to understand. I am not talking about Karabakh conflict but about Armenia’s south. We all know Turkey’s appetite for flash invasions, and we saw it in the 1970s in Cyprus. Everyone understands that by allowing the surrounding of CSTO's only ally in the Caucasus by Turkey's friend, Russia's defence strategy in the south is at risk. But don't worry! The guys in Moscow are not that stupid, and thinking that Russia will not back Armenia in case of military aggression, it's forgetting Russia appetite for Turkey's East.
To simplify my point, I suspect Russia is making it possible to Turkey to use Azerbaijan to capture Syunik. With Azerbaijan attacking the tinny Syunik from both sides, East and West, the victory will appear almost guaranteed. For those who still think that Azerbaijan will never do that because of CSTO, I would suggest recalling the mutual accusations of ceasefire violation that lasted for weeks.
The last war was a success for Azerbaijan thanks to Baku's lies accepted by the international community. They poured accusations that Armenia started the war and kept on breaking ceasefire when everyone knew that the only side desperate for blood was and is Azerbaijan. One can win by misinformation but should be prepared for a boomerang effect.
Some headlines may pop-up accusing Azerbaidjan of launching an assault against Armenian soil, and accusations from Moscow and Paris may put Turkey and Azerbaijan in a challenging position. Either they will need to back off from some of the borders or go-in-full. Then, Turkey would have to either attack Armenia/ CSTO or Azerbaijan as ally forever.
They will face the little surprise that Armenia’s military forces are far from being destroyed. Not many noticed that Armenia’s regular army, air defence, tank divisions and other forces had little involvement in the last war. In other words, no matter how doubting it may sound, Armenia’s military is still very much fresh and combat-ready.
Besides, CSTO’s ally Armenia will get the green light to defend itself as much as possible with all the available tools and resources. This time around there will not be unarmed SU30s, or idle Islanders with helicopters blocked in the hangars. It needs to be clarified that Azerbaijan never got in fight with Armenia proper and Armenia’s weaponry had a minimal deployment in the last war. The chances are high that in such attack Armenia delivers to Azerbaijan massive losses, including in Nakhichevan. This would be the historic moment for Turkey to trigger Turkey’s aggression against Armenia and hence against CSTO. This will inevitably lead to a confrontation with Russia, but this time around no one in Moscow will stay quiet as they have been waiting for this moment for many years. It is important to note that no agreement would protect at that moment Turkey. Nato is not covering the act of aggression from a Member State, and new amendments have confirmed that point. Turkey has the right to intervene in Nakhichevan invasion, but the case scenario of Azeri aggression invalidates the Turkish right to protect Nakhichevan.
So, from this scenario, everything adds-up perfect for Russia to get angry with Turkey, and trigger the cancellation of the treaty of Kars as a punishment for attacking a tinny country victim of a previous genocide which is also though a CSTO ally.
This post describes my theory on what are the advantages for Russia from the recent Karabakh war. What may be the secret plan Moscow drawn with Armenia. Why Nikol has such great backing from Moscow, and what the final solution to Karabakh conflict may be.
Feel free to comment, share, bookmark, downvote. My only ask guys, if you believe everything is going into an abyss, Armenia lost, none of this is accurate, or I am too optimistic, please do not spread any negativity. Try to argue your feedback with clear reasons as to why this or that will never happen, so everyone understands what you mean. Thank you!
If you liked this content, and/or share my view, thanks in advance for all upvote!
